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17-Nov-2019 17:38
We end up with a different energy problem than most have expected: energy prices that remain too low for producers. Let’s look at a few of the issues involved: Advanced economies in particular have been reducing birth rates for many years.
But despite these lower birth rates, world population continues to rise because of the offsetting impact of increasing life expectancy.
Historical amounts from BP 2019 Statistical Review of World Energy.
[7] The growth rates of oil, coal and nuclear have all slowed to below 2% per year since 2011.
Non-metallic minerals include many types of materials including sand, gravel and stone, as well as minerals such as salt, gypsum and lithium.
[3] The years during which the quantities of material resources cease to grow correspond almost precisely to recessionary years.
More intensive agriculture (with more irrigation, fertilization, and pest control) is needed to harvest more food from essentially the same number of arable acres.
Metal ores are increasingly depleted, requiring more soil to be moved to extract the ore needed to maintain the use of metals and other minerals.
Oil prices are at risk, but so are coal and natural gas prices.
(b) The world economy needs to work around the problems of an increasingly resource-constrained world.
Deeper wells and more desalination are required to handle the water needs of a rising population.
World per capita GDP amounts are from the World Bank, using GDP on a 2010 US$ basis.
Let’s take 1.0% per year as the minimum growth in energy consumption per capita required to keep the economy functioning normally.
Greater energy use is required to extract, process, and transport energy products, leading to higher costs and lower net available quantities.